Wet Spring Means Delayed Crops, Difficulties in WNY; Disasters Elsewhere in the U.S.

The rain in Western New York has been more than a nuisance.

It is slowing crop maturation, likely leading to more problems with plant fungi, making it more difficult to get farm machinery out in the fields and probably cutting back on farm productivity. Mosquito populations in some areas (like my house) are soaring, golf courses are soggy, ballgames are getting rained out and last weekend’s sheer perfection is already fading from view.

This weekend’s Buffalo rainfall is just shy of 1.2 inches, nearly twice the average for June through the 15th, and close to 25% above average for the year.

As disappointing, damp, and dreary as much of our spring has been, we have steered clear of disastrous. That can’t be said for huge sectors of the nation’s midsection. In addition to many billions of dollars in flood damage in states such as Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri with levee and dam failures, there have been the property losses and fatalities from extraordinary tornado outbreaks in May and June.

In what some refer to as the nation’s breadbasket, the Midwest and the plains, agricultural disaster is underway. Here is a look at river flood stages, the black markers indicating ongoing significant to major flooding, the dark blue marking at flood stage, and the turquoise markers showing near flood stage. The flooded rivers are even impeding shipment of farm supplies and crops.

The persistence of a wetter-than-average pattern across large portions of the country, with only shorter strings of dry days, makes a major turnaround in the next few weeks unlikely. As of last week, take a look at the large percentage of the country in dark green, classified as extremely moist. Even some parts of the normally arid west in Utah and Nevada are well above average in soil moisture.

As I’ve written in a number of articles, part of this persistence is tied to blocking patterns in upper atmospheric winds tied to arctic warming, which has been extreme much of this past winter and into the spring.

For many farmers growing our biggest crop, corn, planting has either been greatly delayed or canceled due to muddy fields and impossible machinery conditions. In this Washington Post graphic based on USDA and NOAA data, the portions of the Midwest where most soy and corn is grown, precipitation amounts into early June have ranged from 1.5 to 2.5 times above average, with the darkest shades approaching 3 times more (areas unshaded are not dedicated to corn or soy).

Of course, on top of nature’s hit on soybean farmers, there are the economic impacts and possibly long-lasting market losses from the tariffs war. Since tremendous investments are required by such farmers on an annual basis, it’s safe to assume that many Midwest farmers are in economic distress. Unplanted acreage, lower yields due to excess moisture, plant disease, expenditures on machinery and fertilizer all add up to reduced income and, often, increased large debt. The excess moisture actually dates back well into last year, with the United State just having experienced its wettest recorded year from May 2018-2019, according to NOAA.

This article from Bloomberg’s Ag-Web sums up the plight of corn farmers in places like Illinois, the 2nd largest corn-growing state.

The disaster described above is still approaching at high speed. The frequency of blocking patterns associated with excess precipitation shows up not only in moisture, but in cooler-than-average temperatures worsened by excess soil moisture. Wet soil keeps surface temperatures cooler and slows evaporation. Here are the probabilities for below-average temperatures dominating the majority (not all) of the time three to four weeks out.

For the northern tier of the United States, the three-to-four-week precipitation anomalies are not optimistic either, though there is the caveat of higher uncertainty in long-range outlooks for precipitation than for temperatures.

In the near term, the seven-day forecast for precipitation from National Weather Service headquarters does not bode well for any persistent drying, with the bulk of truly heavy rain staying mostly in the Midwest and plains. However, I can tell you the bulk of our rainfall will come later in the week, after a nice and seasonably mild Monday-Wednesday.

Daytime high temps this week should run mainly in the 70s, including next weekend. We may peak not far from 80 on Wednesday. At this early point, next Saturday looks dry, with more uncertainty next Sunday. ‘Round these parts, that means it’s probably time to stock up on more DEET.